AXAU21 ABRF 240928
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0928 UTC 24/02/2020
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Esther
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0900 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 137.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [60 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:    
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:    
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:    
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1500: 16.9S 136.5E:     030 [060]:  030  [055]:  994
+12:  24/2100: 17.0S 135.7E:     045 [080]:  030  [055]:  996
+18:  25/0300: 17.0S 134.9E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  998
+24:  25/0900: 17.0S 134.1E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]:  999
+36:  25/2100: 16.7S 132.6E:     090 [165]:  030  [055]:  999
+48:  26/0900: 16.2S 131.0E:     110 [200]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  26/2100: 15.7S 129.4E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  27/0900: 15.3S 127.8E:     140 [260]:  030  [055]:  999
+96:  28/0900: 15.5S 124.3E:     175 [320]:  030  [055]:  997
+120: 29/0900: 16.7S 120.5E:     215 [400]:  045  [085]:  989
REMARKS:
Ex-tropical cyclone Esther has now transitioned into a vigourous tropical low
and is expected to move in a general westwards direction across the interior of
the Northern Territory into tonight. After making landfall, the convection
surrounding the system developed significantly with numerous mature curved bands
wrapping around the system, but in more recent imagery this convection has
merged into an area of dense overcast cloud. This kind of intensification of
warm cored systems over land is not uncommon across northern Australia and have
been documented and christened as 'agukabams' by Callaghan, Otto and Emanuel
[2007].

Storm surge peaks of around 1.3-1.7m have recently been observed at the
Burketown and Karumba storm tide gauges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
[courtesy of the Department of Environment and Science]. The storm surge appears
to be slowly abating, though a portion of this is persisting on the high tide
tonight and as a result the total waters levels will reach or exceed the Highest
Astronomical Tide.

CIMSS satellite winds suggest that the system is no longer beneath the
upper-level anticyclone and is starting to fall within an area of slightly
increased vertical wind shear. Good outlow channels in both the poleward and
equatorward directions still exist. This environment is conducive to the system
remaining as a vigorous tropical low this evening and overnight and as a
damaging winds and heavy rainfall will remain a risk.

The system is now starting to track towards the west-southwest and should start
to be steered in a more general westwards direction cross the northern
Australian continent for most of the remainder of the week by a cradling
mid-level ridge. There appears to be a strong consensus amongst the computer
models that Esther will track across the Northern Territory and northern Western
Australia before emerging over the Indian Ocean. At this stage, there is a high
[greater than 50%] chance that the system will rapidly redevelop into a tropical
cyclone in the Indian Ocean this weekend.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.