AXAU01 APRF 220729
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 22/03/2024
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 18.1S
Longitude: 101.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west (263 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 952 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (15 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1200: 18.3S  99.6E:     025 (045):  090  (165):  956
+12:  22/1800: 18.6S  98.1E:     035 (070):  085  (155):  961
+18:  23/0000: 19.0S  96.5E:     045 (085):  080  (150):  966
+24:  23/0600: 19.5S  94.9E:     050 (095):  075  (140):  970
+36:  23/1800: 20.6S  92.2E:     065 (120):  065  (120):  977
+48:  24/0600: 21.6S  89.6E:     080 (150):  050  (095):  988
+60:  24/1800: 22.1S  87.1E:     105 (190):  035  (065):  998
+72:  25/0600: 23.5S  85.2E:     135 (250):  030  (055): 1001
+96:  26/0600: 29.7S  89.1E:     205 (375):  030  (055): 1000
+120: 27/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Neville is showing some signs of weakening on recent
images. 
Good confidence in the analysis position with a defined eye on VIS, EIR and
microwave imagery. Recent images show the eye losing some structure and the eye
temperature cooling.  

DT has been averaging 5.5 based on EIR eye pattern with LG surrounding shade
and OW/B eye adjustment, though some images have the eye temperature cooler at
DG. MET/PAT 5.5 based on D 24h trend. FT/CI=5.5 based on DT/MET/PAT. Objective
guidance is in reasonable agreement with subjective Dvorak than previous
estimates. SATCON 92 kn; ADT 90kn;  AiDT 87kn; DPRINT 107kn and DMINT 104 (all
1-min average). Intensity set at 95kn based on subjective Dvorak and some
agreement with subjective guidance. 

Structure is has been biased to SAR pass at 2237UTC, still with slight
asymmetry favouring winds on the southern side. RMW=8nm based on inner edge of
deepest convection surrounding the clear eye which has a radius of
approximately 6nm.  

Neville is pouched in a moist environment surrounded by dry air. CIMSS upper
wind analyses indicate that vertical wind shear is northeasterly around 15kn.
SSTs remain between 26-27C until 25S where cooler waters lie. 

A steering ridge to the south should ensure a consistent westerly track. Over
the weekend, increasing shear is likely to enable dry air to intrude, and the
system is likely to weaken. The forecast is for a gradual weakening in line
with recent NWP guidance. In the longer term, the ridge should weaken, and
Neville is forecast to turn to the southwest and then southeast. As it moves
south, it is forecast to weaken further as it moves over cooler SSTs.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC.