WTPS11 NFFN 010000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 010144 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY[JU-DEE] CENTRE 952HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.2S 168.6E AT 010000 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI
VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 165 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 175 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT 

ORGANISATION GOOD WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SYSTEM
CENTRE LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH GOOD
OUT FLOW TO THE NORTH, SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH LOW SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTEND UPTO 300HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN, WITH BLACK EYE AND WHITE
SURROUND, YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
YIELDING T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS. 

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 20.4S 169.7E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 22.6S 171.1E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 24.6S 172.5E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 26.6S 174.5E MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
JUDY[JU-DEE] WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 010800 UTC.